CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-03-07T00:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-03-07T00:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19367/-1
CME Note: This CME is first seen as a faint partial halo to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2 (later in C3) and followed by a more bright and slightly more narrow shape to the W/NW in STEREO A COR2. The source of this CME is an eruption to the E/SE of AR12958 (N17W28) stretching across multiple longitudes from ~W20 to ~W45 based off of the dimming signature seen in SDO/AIA 193. The eruption is best seen in the SDO/AIA 193, 211, 94, 335, and STEREO A EUVI 195 wavelengths. From STEREO A's point of view, the eruption appears as opening field lines along the Eastern limb, while in SDO/AIA's point of view, the eruption is more clear with dimming, a post-eruptive arcade, and a brief EUV wave (seen best in SDO/AIA 211). UPDATE (2022-03-11T14:50Z): Arrival Field indicated by enhancement exceeding 10 nT, accompanied by field component rotation. Preceded by pileup, followed by slight speed increase. Temperature data inconclusive.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-03-10T18:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-10T01:48Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 479.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021] u_r = 305.697 Acceleration: 1.87539 Duration in seconds: 265012.30 Duration in days: 3.0672720 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 1.88 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 802.7 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 10/03/2022 Time: 01:48 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 35.62 hour(s)
Difference: 16.82 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2022-03-09T07:00Z
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